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ItemDeterminants of private domestic investment in Uganda(Makerere University, 2025)Uganda’s pursuit of economic transformation hinges critically on accelerating domestic private investment, yet persistent structural, institutional, and macroeconomic constraints have kept investment levels below national development targets. This study investigates the determinants of domestic private investment (DPI), measured as gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP), in Uganda over the period 1990–2020. Guided by the Flexible Accelerator Theory, Credit Rationing Theory, and Real Options Theory, the research employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the dynamic effects of GDP growth, exchange rate stability, domestic credit to the private sector, infrastructure investment, and institutional quality proxied by regulatory quality, control of corruption, and government effectiveness on DPI. The results reveal a statistically significant long-run cointegrating relationship among these variables, with domestic credit (coefficient = 0.60, p < 0.01) and infrastructure investment (coefficient = 0.50, p < 0.05) exerting strong positive effects on DPI. GDP growth also has a positive long-run effect (coefficient = 0.30, p = 0.057), while exchange rate depreciation significantly reduces investment (coefficient = -1.20, p < 0.05), underscoring the destabilizing effect of macroeconomic volatility. Regulatory quality shows a marginally positive effect (coefficient = 0.80, p = 0.080), whereas control of corruption and government effectiveness are statistically insignificant. The short-run dynamics indicate similar trends, with a significant error correction term (-0.65, p < 0.01), indicating that 65% of disequilibrium adjusts annually toward the long-run equilibrium. The model demonstrates strong explanatory power (Adjusted R² = 0.67) and passes all diagnostic and stability tests. These findings emphasize that macroeconomic stability, improved credit access, and infrastructure investment are crucial for unlocking Uganda’s private investment potential, while institutional reforms though currently limited in effect remain essential for reducing transaction costs and uncertainty. The study contributes to empirical literature by integrating institutional variables into a robust time-series framework and offers actionable policy recommendations aimed at expanding credit to SMEs, stabilizing the exchange rate, upgrading infrastructure, and improving regulatory efficiency to stimulate domestic private investment and advance Uganda’s development agenda
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ItemDeterminants of healthcare seeking behaviour among women of reproductive age in Uganda(Makerere University, 2024)Women’s health-seeking behaviour (HSBs) is essential, as it affects not only their own health but also the health of their children and families. Often given less attention, this study examined the determinants of healthcare seeking behaviours among women of reproductive age in Uganda, highlighting the barriers and facilitators that influence their decisions and actions to seek healthcare. Secondary analysis was conducted for cross-sectional survey data obtained from the Uganda National Household Survey [UNHS], 2020 individual dataset. The final eligible sample consisted of 14,678 respondents who were women of reproductive age selected from the four statistical regions of Uganda. Frequency distributions for descriptive statistics were conducted, chi-square tests and logistic regressions to examine associations of demographic, socio-economic and health-related variables as predictors of women’s HSBs. Approximately, eight of every ten women (87%) interviewed sought healthcare the last time they needed it with no residence disparities; [rural (87%) versus urban (86%)]. Women’s HSB was statistically associated with having a secondary education (p=0.002), living in union or married (p=0.001), residing in the urban residence (p=0.039). The odds of HSB increased among women who had attained secondary education (OR = 4.13, 99% CI: 1.330 – 3.400), were from Northern Uganda (OR = 1.47, 95%, CI: 1. 998 – 2.167), having an affordable healthcare expenditure (OR = 11.04, 95% CI: 4.442 – 27.443), a moderately affordable transportation expenditure (OR = 13.07, 95% CI: 4.114 – 41.486) and though statistically significant lowered among women in union (OR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.320 – 0.741), those residing in urban residences (OR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.533 – 0.985), as well as those with no primary healthcare giver (OR = 0.36, 95% CI: 0.274 – 0. 465). In retrospect, this was in comparison to those with no formal education, from Central Uganda, reporting expensive healthcare and transport costs and relying on a household member as a primary healthcare giver respectively. The study recommends that policy attention should focus on elevating women’s education, subsidization of healthcare, increase of Uganda’s healthcare facility density, poverty alleviation programmes targeting women empowerment as well as strengthening health systems.
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ItemGaps in agricultural finance in Uganda(Makerere University, 2017)Despite the dire need for capital by Ugandan farmers, gaps exist between them and Banks and constrain the relationship between the two parties, hindering lending to the farmers. Even increase in Bank Branch network coverage across the country has not addressed these gaps. The 80 percent of Ugandans employed in agriculture can hardly access credit. This report highlights the reasons why this is so, and proposes measures to improve agricultural lending. Data has been collected from various sources like Uganda lending statistics from the Central Bank by analysing the disconnect between trends in financial services initiatives and growth, and the contribution to agricultural finance by the said growth. Findings show that gaps in agricultural finance in Uganda result from inherent characteristics of the farming system; such as poor records keeping, dependence of farm production on nature, volatility of prices of agricultural commodities, inadequate government initiatives and other related characteristics. Most of the prevailing problems are unsolvable by an ordinary single Ugandan farmer; in part due to the extensive shift that would be required to change the manner in which farms are ran and also the fact that farmers out rightly lack control over the factors that influence how banks view their risk profiles as prospective borrowers. There is need to supplement current efforts by stakeholders to close gaps in agricultural finance with initiatives that improve farms at the grassroots. Implementation of government interventions that focus on addressing challenges to agricultural lending is of vital importance.
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ItemDeterminants of domestic tourism in Uganda: An examination of macro-economic variables and Uganda’s visitation to national parks (2000Q1-2016Q4)(Makerere University, 2019)The determinants of domestic tourism in Uganda were examined with the view to determine the existence of long-run relationship using the quarterly performance data for the 2000-2016 period. The study explored the effects of Uganda’s macro environment on domestic tourism performance with focus placed on four macroeconomic variables of inflation, market interest rate, exchange rate and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A quantitative methodological approach was employed with the adoption of the ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation approach to regress the number of visitors to national parks on the four macroeconomic variables. The empirical estimates indicate that amongst all the four determinants considered for the model, inflation and market interest rate have a negative impact on domestic tourism while GDP and exchange rate had a positive effect. The implication is that domestic tourism performance degenerates with increasing inflation and market interest rate. Market interest rate has the highest impact compared to all the other variables. The research recommends that due to the existence of a negative relationship between the two variables of inflation and interest rate and dependent variable of domestic tourism in Uganda, the government ought to formulate policies that drive interest rate, and inflation to desirable levels and still seek to achieve high levels of domestic tourism performance. Based on the study findings, the researcher concludes that despite the non-consideration of macro-economic variables in domestic tourism promotion, they have a great impact on its outcomes. It is therefore recommended that there ought to be a sychronised approach when determining national macroeconomic policies such that there is a balance between macroeconomic targets and domestic tourism, especially given the importance and impact of tourism on the growth of the services sector and the Ugandan economy at large.
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ItemThe effect of financial development on economic growth in East Africa: empirical evidence from pooled mean group estimation technique(Makerere University, 2025)This study examines the effect of financial development on economic growth in East Africa using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) Estimator from 1991 to 2023. The findings revealed that financial development had a strong positive and significant short-run and long-run effect on economic growth. Furthermore, findings indicated that capital formation and labour force have a strong positive and significant effect on economic growth while external debt stock exhibits a negative and significant effect on economic growth in East Africa. Based on the aforementioned findings, policies that are oriented toward the development of the financial sector by supporting individual businesses and setting up an enabling environment that encourages investments both public and private which is envisaged as one way of enhancing economic growth. In addition, policies to establish significant investments in infrastructural development to enhance business growth, job creation, and economic growth are highly recommended.