School of Statistics and Planning (SSP) Collections

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    Effect of financial innovation on money demand and it’s stability : evidence from East Africa
    (Makerere University, 2025) Sentongo, Emmanuel
    This research employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model and conducted stability tests using the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ methods to investigate the effect of financial innovation on money demand and its stability in East Africa. The study specifically focused on understanding the impact of income and exchange rates on money demand, analyzing the influence of financial innovations on money demand; and assessing the long-term stability of money demand. The Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation results reveal that real GDP, real interest rates, consumer prices, nominal exchange rates, and financial innovation are key determinants of money demand in East Africa. In the long run, real GDP significantly increases money demand when financial innovation is considered, with a coefficient of 0.967, compared to an insignificant 0.789 without financial innovation. Interest rates negatively impact money demand, with coefficients of -0.129 and -0.135 in the models without and with financial innovation, respectively. Inflation significantly reduces money demand, and its effect is stronger with financial innovation (-1.540 compared to -1.358). The nominal exchange rate has a negative effect, with coefficients of -0.467 and -0.464 in the respective models. Automated Teller Machine (ATM) availability increases money demand (0.05), highlighting the role of financial technology. The error correction term (ECT) indicates short-run adjustment, with disequilibrium corrected by 29-37% per period. Stability tests using CUSUM and CUSUM² show that money demand in Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania remains stable with financial innovation, while Rwanda and Burundi exhibit instability that financial innovations help mitigate. From a policy standpoint, this research highlights the importance of fostering economic growth, maintaining stable exchange rates, and effectively managing the integration of financial innovations within the financial system.
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    Evaluation of continuation ratio and ordered logistic models in modeling level of educational attainment and its associated factors among females (15-49 years) in Uganda
    (Makerere University, 2025-03) Muwanguzi, Alex. Craig
    Formal education is crucial for individual and economic growth. This study examined the accuracy of the continuation ratio model (CRM) and ordered logistic regression (OLR) in modelling correlates of educational attainment among females aged 15-49 in Uganda. Data from the 2016 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS) was used. Descriptive characteristics of respondents were generated. A stepwise ordered logistic regression model was fitted to assess the association between covariates and the outcome, identifying predictor variables for further analysis. At the inferential level, the CRM model was found to be more precise in identifying factors associated with educational attainment. Higher paternal education, joint parental decision-making, wealth status, professional or manual employment, and residence in North Buganda, Bukedi, and Bugisu regions were associated with increased odds of attaining higher education. Conversely, older age, rural residence, larger family size, and residence in Karamoja, Lango, West Nile, Bunyoro, Tooro, and Kigezi regions were associated with lower odds. This study found that the CRM best models female educational attainment, driven by socio-demographic and parental factors. The recommendation is to promote joint parental decision-making, increase economic support for poorer families, and expand employment opportunities for women’s education. Address regional disparities and bridge rural-urban education gaps. We further recommend using this model (CRM) for modelling ordinal response variables representing progress through lower to higher categories.
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    Barriers to the adoption of farm conservation practices among farmers : a case of farmers in the refugee hosting sub-county of Omugo, Terego District
    (Makerere University, 2024) Atukunda, Martha
    The study assessed the barriers to the adoption of farm conservation practices among farmers in the refugee hosting sub county of Omugo, Terego district. The study utilized secondary data from World Vision that employed a cross-sectional research design with a sample size of 368 households. It sought to find out the relationship between adoption of at least one conservation practice and socio economic & demographic factors, institutional factors and bio physical factors. A binary probit regression was employed to assess the relationship of independent variables with the dependent variable. Marginal effects after the regression analyzed. Study results indicated that only 26% of households interviewed adopted at least one of the farm conservation practices. Sex of household heads negatively influence the adoption of FCPs, male headed households were less likely to adopt at least one farm conservation practices by 12.2 percentage points compared to those headed by females. As household size increases by one person the likelihood of adoption of a farm conservation practice increases by 1.2 percentage points. Households who live more than four kilometers from the market were 34.8 percentage points more likely to adopt at least one farm conservation practice as compared to the farmers who live less than a kilometer away from the nearest market. Households that farmed on personal land were 16.4 percentage points more likely to adopt farm conservation practices than their counterparts who rent land. Additionally, those who farm on communal land are 13.1 percentage points more likely to adopt farm conservation than those that rent the farmland. Households with access to credit were found to be more likely to adopt the farm conservation practices than those that did not have access to credit services. Access to credit by a household increased the probability of adoption of at least one FCP by 27.5 percentage points. Based on the findings, the study recommends that future project interventions directly target male inclusion in planned conservation agriculture activities to enhance adoption of the practices, advocates for change in institutional land tenure policy in access to land by mostly refugees in these communities. The study further recommends scaling up accessibility to credit by farmers in the sub county and intentional household mapping at the start of future project.
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    Risk factors associated with cervical cancer diagnosis among women living with HIV: a modified poisson regression analysis
    (Makerere University, 2025) Mirembe, Racheal
    Cervical cancer is a leading cancer among women, with approximately 570,000 new cases and 311,000 deaths annually. Women living with HIV face a sixfold higher risk of developing cervical cancer than those without HIV. However, the specific risk factors in this population remain underexplored in Uganda. The main objective was to examine factors associated with cervical cancer among women living with HIV in Kampala, Uganda. Secondary data of 307 records at the Centre registry on cervical cancer among women living with HIV, screened for cervical cancer between 1st January 2021 to 31st July 2022 were retrieved. A modified Poisson regression model was fitted to examine factors associated with cervical cancer among women living with HIV in Kampala, Uganda. The findings are reported as adjusted Risk Ratios (aRR) with the 95% Confidence Intervals (CI). The overall positivity rate for cervical cancer in this study was 11.4%. The results indicate that women living with HIV who had multiple sexual partners had a significantly higher likelihood of testing positive for cervical cancer (aRR = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01 - 1.15) compared to those with one or no sexual partner. Similarly, women with a history of STIs other than HIV had an increased risk (aRR = 1.07; 95% CI: 1.01 - 1.13) compared to those without such a history. Notably, an interaction between multiple sexual partners and history of STIs other than HIV revealed that women with both risk factors had an even higher likelihood of screening positive (aRR = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.06 - 1.28), suggesting a compounded risk. Conversely, the risk of cervical cancer was significantly lower among women with a history of contraceptive use (aRR = 0.91; 95% CI: 0.85 - 0.98) and those with a CD4 count of at least 200 cells/mm³ (aRR = 0.92; 95% CI: 0.87 - 0.98) compared to their respective counterparts. This study underscores the role of behavioral and clinical factors in cervical cancer risk among women living with HIV in Uganda. Raising awareness about risky sexual behaviors, such as having multiple sexual partners, is essential. Integrating safe sex education and routine STI screening into HIV/AIDS care services is recommended. Future studies with larger sample sizes are needed to enhance statistical power and reliability. Additionally, further research should explore the interaction between HIV/AIDS, CD4 count, and different contraceptive methods in relation to cervical cancer risk.
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    Effect of income taxation on domestic revenue growth in Uganda: an ARDL approach
    (Makerere University, 2024) Nangobi, Patience Efrance
    This study examines the effect of income taxation on domestic revenue growth in Uganda, using monthly data from July 2012 to June 2023. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the research identifies both long- and short-run relationships between tax types and revenue growth. Results show that Pay As You Earn (PAYE) growth is a major contributor to Uganda's long-run revenue growth, with a substantial impact (coefficient = 1.232, p=0.001), positioning PAYE as a key revenue driver. Withholding Tax (WHT) growth also has a positive, albeit less significant, effect on revenue growth (coefficient = 0.164, p=0.053). Short-run analysis reveals that past revenue performance positively influences current revenue growth, reflecting inertia in revenue generation. PAYE growth exerts an immediate impact on revenue, although it displays diminishing returns in later lagged values. Additionally, Value Added Tax (VAT) growth positively influences revenue (coefficient = 0.430, p=0.044), while WHT growth has a strong positive short-run impact (coefficient = 0.322, p=0.000). Conversely, the taxpayer growth rate (TPGR) negatively affects short-run revenue (coefficient = -2.222, p=0.046). The significant error correction term (-2.967, p=0.000) highlights a robust adjustment back to longrun equilibrium, essential for sustained fiscal planning. To bolster domestic revenue growth, the Ugandan government should enhance PAYE administration and compliance through improved collection strategies and taxpayer education. Revisiting Withholding Tax policies and addressing compliance barriers could also strengthen revenue outcomes. Expanding the tax base, particularly by formalizing informal sectors, and improving VAT compliance through targeted training would further support equitable and sustainable revenue growth.