College of Business and Management Sciences (CoBAMS)
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Browsing College of Business and Management Sciences (CoBAMS) by Subject "1990-2021"
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ItemExternal debt and economic growth in Uganda (1990-2021)(Makerere University, 2023-09) Abamwesiga, ApophiaThis research report investigated the effect of external debt on economic growth in Uganda using annual time series data of 1990 to 2021. It was guided by objectives that is to investigate the effect of external debt on Uganda’s GDP, to examine the composition of Uganda’s external debt and to assess the role of external debt in financing infrastructure and other development projects. The study used the theoretical Solow growth model (Solow, 1956) which indicates that GDP growth is determined by capital, labour and technological progress and follows the model by Sala-i-martin, 1997 and Azamet al, 2013 who determined the role of external debt in economic growth. Secondary data was the basis of data used in this study and it was sourced mainly from the World Development Indicators of 2022 on the variables of gross domestic product, external debt stock, external debt service, inflation, government expenditure, gross capital formation, labour force for the period 1990-2021. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model estimation technique is used augmented by the bounds test. The study reveals that in the long run the variables of external debt stock and inflation are negative and significantly related to economic growth while gross capital formation is positive and significantly related to economic growth. Post estimation tests conducted reveal that the model is well specified given the Ramsey RESET test; the residual from the model has no serial correlation given the Breush- Godfrey LM test; the error terms are homoscedastic given the Breush-Pagan test; there is no multicollinearity given the VIF test; residuals are normally distributed given the Jarque –Bera normality test. It was concluded that Uganda has relied heavily on foreign debt to cover its saving and investment gap and the impact of external debt on economic growth is multifaceted. In the short run, it can provide a boost to economic activity, while in the long run, it carries risks related to debt servicing and sustainability. Prudent debt management, careful allocation of borrowed funds and a stable economic and political environment are key to maximizing the benefits of external debt for economic growth while minimizing its potential drawbacks.
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ItemThe relationship between international trade and economic growth in Uganda (1990-2021)(Makerere University, 2023-12) Madasi, BoscoThe study investigates the relationship between international trade and economic growth in Uganda with imports and exports as the measure of trade. Between 1990 and 1995, Uganda implemented liberalization policies, both externally and domestically, aiming at boosting both trade and economic growth. To examine this relationship, the study used time series data for a period of 32 years ranging from 1990-2021 and all the variables used are obtained from the World Banks’ World Development Indicators (WDI). Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillip-Perron root tests were executed to ascertain the order of integration, indicating a mix of I (0) and I (1) integration. Given this mixed order, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) was employed, revealing that exports and secondary school enrolment exert a significant and positive impact while imports and gross capital formation has a negative impact on economic growth. The study's findings show a positive relationship between the exports and economic growth and recommends the government to put in place measures such as ensuring bilateral and multilateral agreements by negotiating and entering into trade agreements with other countries that can open up new markets and reduce trade barriers. Further, provide export financing and credit support, ensure infrastructure development, skills development and training.