Assessment of Tsetse Fly invasion on social ecological resilience of the people of Northern Karamoja

Abstract

Tsetse flies remain a vector of significance whose distribution and prevalence through historical times has affected the social ecological resilience of communities in Uganda. There is a dearth of information regarding its spatial distribution and effect on the social ecological resilience in the Karamoja sub-region given its recent re-invasion of the sub-region. This study sought to: i) characterize tsetse fly spatial distribution, ii) determine factors influencing tsetse fly prevalence and ii) determine the effect of Tsetse fly invasion on socio-ecological resilience of Northern Karamoja. A mixed methods approach involving the use of GIS based entomological data collection and spatial analysis as well as a cross sectional household survey were used. A total of 444 tsetse trap data were overlaid with satellite derived environmental surrogates-rainfall, elevation, land use/cover and NDVI to characterize tsetse distribution. Probit regression model was used to determine factors influencing tsetse prevalence. Meanwhile, the social ecological resilience was determined through computation of Resilience Index (RI). Results showed that tsetse prevalence was high in close proximity to Kidepo Valley National Game Park. Tsetse distribution patterns varied with location, altitude, human population settlements, land cover/ vegetation types and rainfall gradients. Perceived increase in rainfall total, a high vegetation cover density and livestock (cattle) density were found to positively influence tsetse prevalence (p≤0.05). Conversely, increase in human population and distance away from the game park reduced tsetse prevalence. The social ecological resilience of the tsetse affected communities was 20.5 percent, indicating a low resilience against the effect of tsetse fly infestation. This study has shown that conservation practices (Kidepo Valley National Game Park) as well as social biophysical conditions influence the distribution and prevalence of tsetse flies.