Assessing the vulnerability of coffee farming systems to agro-climatic shocks in Uganda.

Abstract

Climate change will likely increase the frequency, magnitude, and the extent of spatial distribution of agro-climatic shocks in many parts of the world. In Uganda, coffee production is threatened by persistent agro-climatic shocks whose magnitude and intensities are increasing, hence a scare to coffee-dependent livelihoods. This study aimed at assessing the vulnerability of coffee farmers to agro-climatic shocks (droughts and floods) under current and future climatic conditions in the Arabica and Robusta Coffee Farming Systems (CFS) of Uganda. Specifically, the study characterized the major agro-climatic shocks, assessed current vulnerability and projected future vulnerability of the CFS to major agro-climatic shocks. This study adopted a mixed method approach of both quantitative and qualitative research designs. Multi-stage sampling techniques were used to randomly select the coffee farming households across altitudes and dominantly coffee growing districts, where the sample size was 420 households. Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used to characterize historical and future droughts and floods in terms of intensity, severity, duration and frequency. The historical climate data used in the SPEI was accessed from Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) for 1991-2020 and the projected climate data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for 2021-2050 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). The Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) was used to determine the current and future vulnerability to the major agro-climatic shocks. The study results show that droughts were mainly moderate and severe in both CFS, though more dominant in the Robusta CFS in terms of frequency and duration. Severe and extreme floods were also experienced in both CFS, dominantly in 1997/1998 and 2018-2020. The average current vulnerability for both CFS was moderate to droughts (0.47) and floods (0.49), though the Robusta CFS had higher vulnerability than the Arabica CFS. The low altitudes in both CFS exhibited higher current vulnerability to droughts while the mid and high altitudes of the Arabica CFS had relatively higher vulnerability to floods. Future vulnerability to droughts and floods is likely to significantly increase under both SSPs, though higher under SSP585, and the Arabica CFS is projected to be more vulnerable to both shocks than the Robusta CFS. The CFS are projected to be moderately vulnerable to droughts (0.56) and highly vulnerable to floods (0.79) under SSP245, while highly vulnerable to both droughts (0.73) and floods (0.65) for SSP585. Significant increase in vulnerability to agro-climatic shocks is more likely in the low altitude of the Robusta CFS; as well as the mid and high altitude of the Arabica CFS under both SSPs. The study therefore recommends altitude level or area specific tailored interventions that provide for effective disaster risk management and reduce the vulnerability of coffee farming systems to agro-climatic shocks.