| dc.description.abstract | Increasing demand for groundwater resources necessitates effective mapping and
categorization of groundwater potential zones to ensure long-term water security, especially in
semi-arid regions like Agago District, Uganda. Groundwater serves as the primary water source
in the district, yet access is often unreliable due to seasonal variability and limited surface water
options. Conventional groundwater exploration methods are costly and provide localized data,
creating a need for more efficient and comprehensive approaches that support multiple factor
assessment. This study seeks to evaluate groundwater potential in the semi-arid regions of
Agago District, Uganda, by determining key factors that impact groundwater availability and
modeling groundwater potential zones, aiming to categorize these zones effectively.
This study utilized the Delphi technique to attain expert consensus on eight pivotal factors
affecting groundwater potential: Rainfall, Geology, Slope, Soil, Land Cover, Drainage Density,
Lineament Density, and Distance from Rivers. Esteemed for its efficacy in interdisciplinary
domains, the Delphi method transcends conventional groundwater exploration techniques by
promoting expert collaboration through its principles of anonymity, iterative rounds, controlled
feedback, and statistical response aggregation. Thematic maps were tested for multicollinearity
using the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF), indicating factor independence. Factor weights were
determined through the AHP, producing a consistency ratio below 0.1, confirming reliability.
A weighted overlay analysis was then conducted to map groundwater potential zones.
It was found that they could be categorized as poor (2%), low (13%), moderate (51%), high
(30%), and very high (4%). Validation with borehole data by comparison with categorized
zones indicated a 73% accuracy rate and a ROC analysis yielded an AUC score of 0.724,
demonstrating reliable model performance. The highest groundwater potential was identified
in the southern district near the Agago River, where alluvial and lacustrine deposits suggest
favorable conditions for productive aquifers. Sensitivity analysis highlighted geology, soil, and
rainfall as the primary factors influencing model accuracy.
This study suggests that areas with high and very high groundwater potential, especially in the
southern region, should be prioritized for exploration. Planning authorities should employ
groundwater potential maps to inform infrastructure siting, thereby safeguarding infiltration
paths. Consistent groundwater mapping is recommended to mitigate climate effects and
promote sustainable resource management. | en_US |
