Analysis of the reliability of time schedule forecasts adopted at road project tendering in Uganda

Abstract

This study takes a close look at the accuracy of time schedule forecasts used in road construction projects across Uganda, focusing on seven key projects. It explores the common discrepancies between the estimated timelines at the tender stage and the actual time it takes to complete the projects. In Uganda’s infrastructure sector, precise scheduling is critical to managing resources effectively and keeping costs under control. However, time overruns, increased expenses, and delays in delivering planned projects are frequent challenges. These issues point to a deeper problem in how projects are planned and scheduled during tendering. The study uses a mixed-methods approach, blending quantitative analysis of scheduling deviations with qualitative insights from project documentation including tender schedules, progress reports, and completion certificates. The quantitative analysis shows that some projects took two to four times longer to complete than originally forecasted. Qualitative insights helped to identify the root causes of these delays. Key internal factors affecting project timelines included contractor capacity, resource limitations, and restricted access to credit. External factors also played a role, such as delays in relocating utilities, challenges with land acquisition, unexpected ground conditions, and delayed utility relocations. Together, these issues created significant hurdles in meeting the projected timelines. For each of the seven case study projects, the original Time Schedule Forecasts at the tender stage were reviewed. All the projects had used Microsoft Project for scheduling, along with the Critical Path Method (CPM). The analysis revealed that while the forecasts were accurate and reliable for the construction phase, they had however, underestimated the time needed for preconstruction activities. On this basis, the study proceeded to estimate reliable durations for preconstruction activities based on the project documents for the seven case study projects. Based on data from the seven case study projects; the study proceeded to determine the major causes of delay that Project Managers and various Stakeholders need to plan against; to ensure timely project execution. The research aims to enhance our understanding of infrastructure development in Uganda, offering insights for policymakers, contractors, and project managers. By addressing some of the root issues in scheduling practices, the study advocates for improved efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and satisfaction among all stakeholders involved in Uganda’s road construction projects, helping the country meet its infrastructure goals for the future.